During the afternoon cloud increases over Ireland and there will be patchy rain for Northern Ireland by teatime, from the warm front. The southerly winds strengthen as the rain sets in for western Scotland. The Scottish Environmental Protection Agency SEPA have more water scarcity notices and advice after such a dry summer. Yesterday’s rain and the upcoming wet weather will be welcome but nowhere near enough to replenish the reservoir levels.
“Above average rainfall is required to see long-term recovery as a significant rainfall deficit has built up over the summer.” SEPA
It will be cool and clear over eastern Britain tonight as the rain topples over northern Scotland. The more active cold front then arrives from the west working its way over Northern Ireland for the start of Thursday and bringing heavy rain into western Scotland. Here there is a yellow warning for rain from the Met Office.
“Rain … becoming persistent and heavy at times through Thursday and much of Friday. Accumulations of 40-70mm will build up quite widely with 100-150mm in a few spots in Argyll and West Highland. There is some uncertainty as to which areas will see the heaviest totals, but rain should gradually turn less heavy during Friday.”
The uncertainty comes from the waves on the frontal band which could edge the rain a bit further north or south. South to SW winds will drive more cloud and dampness onto western Britain particularly western Wales, Cumbria and across to the western Pennines/ Yorkshire Dales.
In this South to SW flow, it will feel warmer, and temperatures will widely be 16 to 18C. There will be lighter winds on Friday and again temperatures in the high teens with parts of England and eastern Wales potentially reaching 21 or 22C. Just need the sunny breaks in the cloud cover. London could also see 21C (70F). Depending on the rain, Glasgow and Grampian could see 20C.
Fog could be an issue later this week, another autumn hazard for the early mornings.
There looks to be a shift by Sunday as high pressure builds in from the SW, but a low pressure slips to the north of Scotland. So, a more westerly flow which won’t be as warm, and the fading cold front will move across Wales then England on Sunday morning as blustery showers take hold in the far north.