Richard Drury
Ember analysts believe that power sector emissions will slightly decline in 2024, as growth in clean energy generation will outweigh demand growth.
According to Ember’s fifth annual Global Electricity Review, electricity demand will increase significantly by 968 TWh (terawatt hours) this year, but clean generation will likely grow at an estimated 1300 TWh in 2024. Last year, the growth was 493 TWh.
Fossil generation is set to decline by 333 TWh, or 2% in 2024, the report said.
In addition, hydro generation will see a large rise, most importantly in China due to the expected increases in droughts due to warmer climate conditions in future years, wrote Małgorzata Wiatros-Motyka in the report.
Solar and wind additions are also expected to hit new records. Bloomberg forecasts a 29% rise in solar additions, from 444 gigawatts in 2023 to 574 gigawatts in 2024. The Global Wind Energy Council forecasts a 9% increase in wind additions, from 115 gigawatts in 2023 to 125 in 2024.
When it comes to electricity demand, the expectation is a growth of about 3.3% (or 968 TWh), compared to 2.2% (or 627 TWh) in 2023, “well above the last 10 years’ trend growth of 2.5%,” said Wiatros-Motyka.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration forecasts a 3% rise in the country, compared to a 1% fall in 2023.
“However, it remains possible that electricity demand overshoots our forecast, which could result in power sector emissions registering another small rise in 2024, especially if droughts do not come to an end,” said Wiatros-Motyka.
China’s strong growth in solar and wind power deployment in the last months of last year led the International Energy Agency to forecast a 3% fall in coal generation for the country in 2024. China also added 37 gigawatts of new solar and 10 gigawatts of new wind capacity in January and February. If expectations come to fruition, “this sets the country on a path to achieve new record additions of clean electricity in 2024.”
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